The cnn Ibn political survay

Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are two southern states that had turned the tide against an over-confident National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2004 Lok Sabha Elections. A neck-and-neck fight between United Progressive Allinace (UPA) and third parties looks like the most possible scenario in the 2009 elections.


A Billion Votes focuses on the CNN-IBN-CSDS poll that explains how the two states will decide the fate of the 15th Lok Sabha.


On the panel of experts to discuss the survey were political columnist Kalyani Shankar, Bureau Chief of Vaartha R Rajagopalan, political commentator Dr V Krishna Ananth and political analyst Dr K Nageshwar.


Tamil Nadu: All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has the momentum


Massive swing in favour of AIADMK
Party 2006 2007 2009
DMK 26 26 28
ADMK 16 18 28
Others 48 56 44


Note: All figures in per cent.




A Billion Votes: How Andhra, TN will vote in '09


Rajagopalan began the debate by saying, "DMK (Dravida Munnettra Kazhagam) will lose because of not handling the Sri Lankan issue properly. Secondly, there is no governance in Tamil Nadu. And that is reflecting in your poll too."


Compared to 2006 AIADMK is gaining…………
Caste/community-wise swings for…


Upper caste 35%
Nadars 17%
Vanniyars 33%

Women 13%

Muslims 10%




Traditionally, Tamil Nadu is all about alliances. The poll shows that while there is a dead heat between the DMK and the AIADMK, 13 per cent are with the Congress. There is also the PMK (Pattali Makkal Katchi) which is as of now with the DMK alliance. So Chief Minister M Karunanidhi maybe down, but he is not out.


Alliance crucial in a fragmented scenerio
Party
Vote share

DMK 28%
AIADMK 28%
Congress 13%
DMDK 09%
BJP 06%
PMK 04%
Left 03%
MDMK 01%
Others 08%




"I agree but at the same time arithmetic matters more in elections. This has been proved in Tamil Nadu for the past two or three times. When Jayalalithaa got the number of allies, she got the maximum number of seats," Shankar said.


The panelists agreed that whoever gets the bigger alliance will have the advantage even now in Tamil Nadu, particularly the party which is with the Congress. Traditionally, a Dravida party plus Congress has been the beneficiary in Tamil Nadu.

We need to go back to the Assembly elections of 2006 when Jayalalithaa fought the elections alone with just the MDMK (Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) and yet the DMK ended up as the minority. So the AIADMK was not really routed as has happened in the past in TN," Ananth said.
Rapid decline in DMK government’s popularity
Those who say they are…
With DMK government in 2007 2009

Highly Satisfied 28 20


Satisfied 39 42


Dissatisfied 22 30


Note: All figures in per cent. Rest 'no opinion'.
Is there a possibility that both the sides – DMK and AIADMK – could get a sizable chunk in the upcoming elections?
"This time it is not going be like 2004. The winner is not going to take all, that is for certain," Ananth said.
"But as far as DMK and the Congress are concerned any substantive losses for them, even if it is going to be 50 per cent of what they got, it is going to make a huge difference to the permutation and combination in Delhi. Secondly, so much has happened in the last three months that I see the possibility of some kind of a third force emerging out of Tamil Nadu which is centred around the Sri Lankan issue. This could be the combination of Vaiko, PMK and others," Ananth added.
Disagreeing strongly Rajagopalan said, "There is no third front in Tamil Nadu. It is going to be a direct fight between DMK and AIADMK. Also, there is anger against the DMK-led government so it makes advantage Jayalalithaa."
However, Shankar said, "So far Tamil Nadu has always swung to one side or the other except last time. The Sri Lanka Tamil issue will be a big issue and both sides are going to use it for their benefits. And no one really has an advantage on this issue."